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Project Fear, ten years on
Recession, mass job losses, a house-price crash, an emergency budget, even the end of western civilisation. Ten years on, the record is in.
Prediction and outcome
In 2016 voters were told by the Treasury, the Bank of England, the IMF and world leaders what would follow a vote to leave. Here is each warning in its author's own words or figures, set beside the official record.
They said
HM Treasury, 23 May 2016
Did not happen
The economy grew in every one of the eight quarters after the vote, starting with 0.4% in July to September 2016.
Sources: HM Treasury, The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (Cm 9292); ONS quarterly GDP
They said
HM Treasury, 23 May 2016
Did not happen
The number of people in work rose by 640,000, from 31.75 million in spring 2016 to 32.39 million in spring 2018. Unemployment fell from 4.9% to 4.0%, its lowest since 1975.
Sources: HM Treasury (Cm 9292); ONS, UK labour market, August 2016 and August 2018
They said
HM Treasury, 23 May 2016
Did not happen
The average UK house price rose from £214,000 in June 2016 to £228,000 in June 2018, a rise of 6.5%.
Sources: HM Treasury (Cm 9292); ONS UK House Price Index
They said
George Osborne, Chancellor, 15 June 2016
Did not happen
No emergency budget was held. Mr Osborne left office four weeks later, and none of the measures was introduced.
Sources: Al Jazeera, 15 June 2016; Forbes, 15 June 2016
They said
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, June 2016
Did not happen
Britain left in 2020. The EU, and western civilisation, are still here.
Sources: Interview with Bild, reported by Newsweek, June 2016
They said
David Cameron, Prime Minister, 9 May 2016
Overstated
The speech was widely reported as a warning that Brexit could lead to war, though Mr Cameron did not say so directly. War did return to Europe in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Brexit had no part in it, and Britain has been one of Ukraine's leading backers. EU countries, meanwhile, have kept buying Russian fuel, fertiliser and metals. They have paid Russia an estimated €247bn since the invasion, more than the €200bn they have given Ukraine, and that money helps fund Russia's war. See the EU's payments to Russia
Sources: Prime Minister's speech, gov.uk, 9 May 2016; CREA; Eurostat; European Parliament Research Service
They said
David Cameron, 8 February 2016
Did not happen
The treaty stayed in place. UK border checks are still carried out in France.
Sources: The Daily Telegraph, 8 February 2016
They said
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, 13 May 2016
Did not happen
The economy kept growing through 2016 and 2017. Since the UK left, it has grown faster than Germany, France and Italy.
Sources: Euronews, 13 May 2016; ONS; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
They said
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, 12 May 2016
Did not happen
There was no recession. The economy grew in every quarter of the two years after the vote.
Sources: Gulf News / Reuters, 12 May 2016; ONS quarterly GDP
They said
PwC report for TheCityUK, April 2016
Did not happen
About 7,000 finance jobs had moved from London to the EU by March 2022, according to EY's tracker of the industry.
Sources: TheCityUK, April 2016; EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker, March 2022
They said
Barack Obama, US President, 22 April 2016
Half right
There is still no full UK–US trade agreement, so on that he was right. But the EU has none either, and in 2025 the UK secured lower US tariffs on its cars than the EU did. Britain has also signed trade pacts with eight US states, from Indiana in 2022 to Texas in 2024. These ease barriers for business but cannot cut tariffs, which are set in Washington.
Sources: White House press conference transcript, 22 April 2016; UK–US Economic Prosperity Deal, 2025; Department for Business and Trade, state memoranda of understanding, 2022–2024
They said
HM Treasury, 18 April 2016
Misleading
It cannot be tested until 2030. But the figure was national output divided by the number of households, not household income, and MPs on the Treasury Committee criticised how it was presented.
Sources: House of Commons Treasury Committee, HC 122, 27 May 2016
They said
Evening Standard, edited by George Osborne, July 2018
Did not happen
The UK signed a co-operation agreement with that agency in December 2021. Gonorrhoea cases rose in the UK and across the EU alike, up 31% in the EU in 2023. Drug-resistant cases in England remain rare, and most are linked to travel to Asia. In 2025 England began the world's first gonorrhoea vaccination programme.
Sources: The Spectator, 30 July 2018; ECDC; UK Health Security Agency, March 2025
In fairness
Sterling dropped sharply on the morning after the vote, to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 30 years, and import prices rose.
It has since recovered part of the fall. The pound stood at $1.35 in August 2026, against about $1.50 on the eve of the vote and $1.32 the day after. Its highest point since the referendum was $1.43, in April 2018.
House of Commons Library, Sterling exchange rates, September 2026
Its job and house-price figures were measured against what it expected if the UK stayed. Its defenders also note that it assumed an immediate start to the exit process and no response from the Bank of England, and neither assumption held.
The Treasury Committee said voters were "poorly served" by misleading claims from both campaigns, including Vote Leave's £350m a week. See what happened to that claim
Long-run forecasts are still contested. The Office for Budget Responsibility assumes Brexit will lower UK productivity by 4% over time. That is a modelling assumption, and the growth record since 2021 is set out on the growth comparison. All sources
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