43.8%
Germany: the AfD's vote in Saxony-Anhalt
In September 2026 the EU-sceptic AfD won a German state election, the strongest result for a party of the far right in any German state since 1945.
Chatham House, Sept 2026
Home / Rejoin
The rejoin reality
Rejoining would mean worse terms than before
The UK left with special terms won over 40 years. A new applicant accepts the EU's rules as they stand today.
The question nobody asks
There is no "rejoin". There is only a new application.
Under Article 49 of the EU Treaty, the UK would apply like any other country. All 27 members must agree the terms, and each has a veto. The old deal is not on the table.
Support for rejoining, as usually asked
55%
Support once the old opt-outs are off the table
35%
43% opposed
The majority disappears when the terms are spelled out
Polls showing a majority for rejoining ask about the EU people remember. When YouGov asked about rejoining without the UK's old exemptions from the euro and passport-free travel, support fell by 20 points and more people opposed it than backed it.
YouGov, June 2026
"You cannot pick and choose among the union's freedoms, nor can you decide to take only what suits you."
Britain should work towards "rejoining a significantly reformed EU".
Only 18–20%
The rejoin reality
Rejoining would not bring back the old deal
The UK left with a set of special terms won over 40 years. A new applicant applies under Article 49 of the EU Treaty and accepts the rules as they stand. Here is how the three positions compare.
| Area | As a member, to 2020 | Today | Likely terms on re-entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget rebate | Special deal The UK rebate, agreed in 1984, returned several billion pounds a year. |
UK decides No membership fee. Only legacy Withdrawal Agreement payments, now under £1bn a year. |
Downgrade The UK rebate no longer exists. Any new correction would need the unanimous agreement of all 27 members. |
| Currency | Special deal Legal opt-out from the euro (Protocol 15). |
UK decides The pound, with interest rates set by the Bank of England. |
Downgrade New members are legally committed to adopt the euro once they meet the criteria. No new opt-out has been granted since 1992. |
| Borders and Schengen | Special deal Outside Schengen, with UK passport checks kept (Protocols 19 and 20). |
UK decides UK border checks and visa policy. |
Downgrade The Schengen rules bind all new members (Protocol 19, Article 7), with passport-free travel to follow. |
| Free movement | Applied EU citizens had the right to live and work in the UK. |
UK decides One points-based system for all countries since 2021. |
Returns Free movement would apply in full. There are no permanent opt-outs. |
| Voting and vetoes | Shared Most EU laws passed by qualified majority. Vetoes only in areas needing unanimity, such as tax and foreign policy. |
UK decides Parliament votes on UK law alone. |
Weaker Qualified majority voting across most law-making. EU leaders are debating moving more areas, including foreign policy, from unanimity to majority voting. |
| Justice and home affairs | Special deal Opt-in, case by case (Protocol 21). |
UK decides UK policing and justice law, with agreed co-operation. |
Downgrade No sign that a pick-and-choose opt-in would be offered again. |
| Shared EU debt | None No common EU borrowing on this scale before 2020. |
UK decides No liability for the Covid recovery fund or later EU borrowing. |
New cost A share of repaying Covid recovery debt until 2058, and of any future joint borrowing. |
| Trade deals | EU-run Trade policy set by the EU for all members. |
UK decides Independent deals, including CPTPP, Australia, New Zealand and India. |
Lost UK deals would have to be left or handed over to EU control. |
"Likely terms" reflect the EU Treaties and the terms accepted by every member that has joined since 1995. Final terms would be set in accession talks, and in practice the timing of euro adoption depends on a country meeting the criteria. Sources: Treaty on European Union Art. 49; TFEU Art. 140; Protocols 15, 19, 20 and 21; House of Commons Library.
What you would give up
Seven things Britain holds today and would hand back
Each of these is yours now. Each would go, by treaty, on the day the UK re-entered.
The pound
New members commit to adopting the euro. The UK's opt-out ended when it left.
Your interest rates
In the euro, mortgage and savings rates follow a rate set in Frankfurt for 21 countries, not one set in London for Britain.
Your borders
The Schengen rules bind every new member. Free movement returns in full, and the points-based system ends for EU citizens.
Your trade deals
India, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific partnership. Trade deals are signed by Brussels alone, so the UK's own would end.
The rebate
Won in 1984, gone in 2020. As Europe's second-largest economy the UK would pay the second-largest bill, estimated by Britain Unbound at £35bn a year, which would lower the share paid by Germany and France.
A clean balance sheet
The EU has borrowed hundreds of billions jointly since the UK left. A returning UK would help repay it until 2058.
The last word
EU law would again override Acts of Parliament, with the EU's court in Luxembourg as the final judge.
Picture the road back in
- The application. The UK asks to join. All 27 governments must say yes, so each can name its price. Spain has interests in Gibraltar, and France in fishing.
- The negotiation. The UK works through 35 chapters of EU law. The question in each is how quickly the UK adopts the rules, not whether.
- The bill. Budget payments begin, with no rebate, into a budget planned at almost €2 trillion for 2028–2034.
- The handover. UK trade deals are ended. The UK commits to the euro and to the Schengen rules.
- The lock. EU law is supreme again, and changing any of it needs agreement from other countries.
This sequence follows the accession process in Article 49 of the EU Treaty and the terms accepted by every country that has joined since 1995. Final terms and timings would be set in negotiation.
Growth and the EU today
The EU of 2016 is not the EU of today
The case for rejoining often assumes Europe is still the confident, fast-growing bloc of a decade ago. Its biggest economies have struggled, and its politics have changed.
"The political class continue this debate today as if the Europe we left in 2016 is the Europe of today. It's nothing like the Europe of today."Andrew Neil, BBC Question Time, September 2026 (as reported)
Real GDP growth, cumulative
1.3%UK growth in 2025, fastest of the four
+6.3% vs +1.9%UK vs Germany, Q2 2026 GDP above Q4 2019
Independent trade policy
The UK negotiates for itself, and is the only European member of CPTPP, a bloc covering about 15% of world GDP.
Rules that fit the UK
Parliament can reform regulation for fintech, life sciences, gene editing and insurance without needing 27 countries to agree.
Fisheries and farming
The UK is an independent coastal state and sets its own farm support. Access for EU boats is now negotiated by UK ministers, not set in Brussels.
The EU today
The Europe people remember is not the Europe on offer
The case for going back assumes the EU of 2016: stable, growing and run from the political centre. Since then it has changed in ways that should give anyone pause, whatever their politics.
1st
France: National Rally leads the polls
Its candidate is the front-runner for the 2027 presidential election. The party wants to roll back EU powers from the inside.
UK in a Changing Europe, June 2026
€807bn
Joint EU debt, a first
The EU now borrows in its own name on a scale the UK always opposed as a member. Repayments run to 2058.
European Commission, NextGenerationEU
0.2%
Germany's growth since 2019
The EU's biggest economy, inside the single market and customs union throughout, has barely grown in six years.
IMF, April 2026
Since 2024
Border checks inside Schengen
Germany brought back checks on all its land borders in 2024 and has kept extending them, inside the passport-free zone a returning UK would have to join.
German Federal Government
27 vetoes
Hard to reform
Changing the EU's treaties needs every member to agree. Hoping to rejoin a reformed EU means waiting for 27 governments to agree on what reform means.
Treaty on European Union, Art. 48
None of this means Europe's voters are wrong. It means the EU a returning UK would enter is more divided, more indebted and slower-growing than the one it left. Joining the slowest-growing group of large economies is an odd plan for faster growth.
The mandate question
Nobody has voted to go back
In Britain's system a prime minister does not need a personal mandate, and Parliament could in law vote to apply. But a change this large has always rested on the voters' consent, and so far nobody has asked for it.
"Britain will stay outside of the EU."
What every Labour MP was elected on
Labour's 2024 manifesto added: "There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement."
Labour Party manifesto, 2024
33.7%
Labour's share of the vote in 2024
The lowest share on record for a governing party, won on a promise to stay out.
House of Commons Library
379 MPs
Who chose the Prime Minister
Andy Burnham took office on 20 July 2026 after 379 Labour MPs nominated him unopposed. He has not led his party into a general election.
Labour Party leadership election, July 2026
17.4 million
The last time the public was asked
In 2016 more people voted to leave the EU than have ever voted for anything else in Britain. No vote since has reversed it.
Electoral Commission
In fairness: the Prime Minister has said he will set out options and is not expected to act before the next election. He has said Labour's next manifesto could include a referendum. Asked on 30 September 2026 whether he might go ahead without one, he said: "I wouldn't rule anything out at this moment." Sources
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